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Matchup Model · Confidence Score · Explainable

UFC Fight Predictor

Pick two fighters and let the model do the talking. It weighs reach, age, finishing rate, record and pedigree, calls a winner with a confidence score, and shows exactly how it got there.

Fight Predictor
Model pick
VS
Alex Pereira 47%53% Israel Adesanya

The Model Says

Israel Adesanya wins

53% confidence — by razor-thin decision in a coin-flip war.

How the model scored it

76Record quality · w3080
85Finishing threat · w2267
99Reach · w14100
50Prime / age · w1661
49Experience · w1086
100Pedigree · w8100
A transparent model on a Sep 2026 stat snapshot — for fun, not betting advice

Predict any UFC matchup

Our UFC fight predictorisn't a black box. For any two fighters, it scores six factors — record quality, finishing threat, reach, prime/age, experience and champion pedigree — each with its own weight, then turns the gap into a win probability. You see the percentage, the projected method, and a factor-by-factor bar chart so you can argue with the model, not just at it.

For fun, not for the sportsbook

A model can measure tendencies, but it can't measure heart, a granite chin or a perfect game plan — which is why upsets are the best thing about MMA. Use it to settle dream-fight debates, then check the raw measurables on the tale of the tape, or see how badly transitivity breaks in MMA math. This tool is for entertainment only and is not betting advice.

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