MMW.
Matchup Model · Confidence Score · Explainable

UFC Fight Predictor

Pick two fighters and let the model do the talking. It weighs reach, age, finishing rate, record and pedigree, calls a winner with a confidence score, and shows exactly how it got there.

Fight Predictor
Model pick
VS
Alex Pereira 46%54% Israel Adesanya

The Model Says

Israel Adesanya wins

54% confidence — by razor-thin decision in a coin-flip war.

How the model scored it

86Record quality · w3086
75Finishing threat · w2267
99Reach · w14100
56Prime / age · w1667
40Experience · w1080
100Pedigree · w8100
A transparent model on a early 2025 stat snapshot — for fun, not betting advice

Predict any UFC matchup

Our UFC fight predictorisn't a black box. For any two fighters, it scores six factors — record quality, finishing threat, reach, prime/age, experience and champion pedigree — each with its own weight, then turns the gap into a win probability. You see the percentage, the projected method, and a factor-by-factor bar chart so you can argue with the model, not just at it.

For fun, not for the sportsbook

A model can measure tendencies, but it can't measure heart, a granite chin or a perfect game plan — which is why upsets are the best thing about MMA. Use it to settle dream-fight debates, then check the raw measurables on the tale of the tape, or see how badly transitivity breaks in MMA math. This tool is for entertainment only and is not betting advice.

More MMW Tools

All tools →